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Reducing smoking rates to 10% by 2025 could prevent almost 100,000 lung cancer deaths

5th April 2019 - Cancer research Advocacy

New Cancer Council research shows 100,000 lung cancer deaths could be avoided this century if smoking rates are reduced to 10% by 2025, prompting calls for renewed Government action in tobacco control.
 
Currently over 12% of Australians are daily smokers and an additional 3% of Australians smoke less frequently. New Cancer Council NSW research shows that if the smoking rates for all smokers is reduced to 10% by 2025, 97,432 lung cancer deaths could be avoided by 2100.

If smoking rates are reduced to 5%, more than 200,000 lung cancer deaths would be prevented. While these results are promising, recent Australian data has shown the decline in smoking rates has slowed and Cancer Council is concerned that state and federal Governments are becoming complacent.
 
Cancer Council Australia is calling for a national comprehensive tobacco control strategy that includes:

  • Set targets to achieve declines in smoking prevalence
  • Renewed and significant national investment in hard-hitting anti-tobacco ads like the “every cigarette is doing you damage” campaign
  • New laws to regulate product design and ingredients to stop the tobacco industry finding new ways to entice new young smokers

Anita Dessaix, Chair, Public Health Committee, Cancer Council Australia said that while not all lung cancers are caused by smoking, tobacco remained the biggest preventable factor behind Australia’s number one cancer killer.
 
“Smoking doesn’t just cause most lung cancers, it also causes many other cancer types, as well as cardiovascular disease, emphysema and multiple other chronic and fatal conditions.
 
“Around 2.5 million Australians still smoke and two in three of them will die prematurely from smoking if they don’t quit.
 
“This study just shows the tip of the iceberg in terms of the potential number of lives the next Australian Government, in fact all state and territory governments, could save if tobacco control was made a priority again.
 
“With an election campaign imminent, federal MPs and candidates have an ideal opportunity to show their commitment to reducing smoking in our communities based on doing more of what works,” said Ms Dessaix.
 
The latest research findings also coincide with an Australian Government review of tobacco legislation. Ms Dessaix said more needed to be done to protect future generations from big tobacco.
 
“There has also been a stall in the tobacco legislative reform agenda since plain packaging was introduced. The next Australian government will be well-placed to work with all jurisdictions on implementing a new National Tobacco Strategy.”
 
Professor Karen Canfell, Director of Research at Cancer Council NSW said the good news was that the new study estimated that previous tobacco control measures introduced since 1956 had already saved almost 79,000 people from dying from a preventable lung cancer.
 
“Smoking rates halved over the past 25 years. This study highlights the amazing impact of previous measures such as tobacco taxation, plain packaging, smoke-free legislation, mass media campaigns and restrictions on advertising, as well as greater awareness about the benefits of quitting smoking. The indications are that tobacco control measures have put us on a trajectory to potentially save almost two million lives from lung cancer alone by 2100.
 
“To ultimately reach this goal we need to ensure that the Government commitment to tobacco control continues. We must ensure Australians remain motivated to quit.”
 

– ENDS –

 
About the lung cancer mortality rate projection study

  • “Lung cancer mortality in Australia in the twenty-first century: how many lives can be saved with effective tobacco control?” is a study by Cancer Council NSW researchers published in Lung Cancer
  • The aim of this study was to estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths that could be averted under various smoking scenarios.
  • Researchers predicted lung cancer mortality rates and numbers of deaths to 2100 using a previously validated generalized linear model based on age, birth cohort and population cigarette smoking exposure. They estimated the impact of various tobacco control scenarios: ‘actual tobacco control’ (incorporating changing smoking behaviours including those related to the aggregate effect of past and current taxation, plain packaging, mass media campaigns and other initiatives) and scenarios where 10%, 5% and 0% smoking prevalence was achieved by 2025, all of which were compared to a counterfactual scenario with the highest historical smoking consumption level continuing into the future as if no tobacco control initiatives had been implemented.
  • Without behaviour change and the contribution of tobacco control, there would have been an estimated 392,116 lung cancer deaths over the period 1956-2015; of these 20% (78,925 deaths; 75,839 males, 3,086 females) have been averted due to tobacco control. However, if past and current measures continue to have the expected effect and behavioural trends continue, an estimated 1.9 million deaths (1,579,515 males, 320,856 females; 67% of future lung cancer deaths) will be averted in 2016-2100. If smoking prevalence is reduced to 10%, 5% or 0% by 2025, an additional 97,432, 208,714 or 360,557 deaths could be averted from 2016 to 2100, respectively.
  • Tobacco control in Australia has had a dramatic impact on the number of people dying from lung cancer. Several hundred thousand more lung cancer deaths could be averted over the course of the century if close-to-zero smoking prevalence could be achieved in the next decade.

About Cancer Council:
 
Cancer Council is Australia’s leading cancer charity working across every aspect of every cancer. Every day, we support families affected by cancer when they need it most, speak out on behalf of the community on cancer issues, empower people to reduce their cancer risk, and find new ways to better detect and treat cancer. With your help, we’re getting closer to a cancer free future every day.

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