Estimating the number of lung cancer deaths avoided by tobacco control

Background

Lung cancer is Australia’s number one cancer killer, with over 9,000 people expected to lose their life to the disease in 2019. While not all lung cancers are caused by smoking, tobacco remains the biggest preventable factor. Smoking doesn’t just cause most lung cancers, it also causes many other cancer types, as well as cardiovascular disease, emphysema and multiple other chronic and fatal conditions.

Around 2.5 million Australians still smoke and two in three of them will die prematurely from smoking if they don’t quit.

The research

The aim of this study was to estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths that could be averted under various smoking scenarios.

This study highlights the amazing impact of previous measures such as tobacco taxation, plain packaging, smoke-free legislation, mass media campaigns and restrictions on advertising, as well as greater awareness about the benefits of quitting smoking. The study estimated that previous tobacco control measures introduced since 1956 had already saved almost 79,000 people from dying from a preventable lung cancer.

Currently over 12% of Australians are daily smokers and an additional 3% of Australians smoke less frequently. New Cancer Council NSW research shows that if the proportion of people who smoke is reduced to 10% by 2025, 97,432 lung cancer deaths could be avoided by 2100.

If smoking rates are reduced to 5%, more than 200,000 lung cancer deaths would be prevented.