Forecasting lung cancer mortality rates in Australia

Background

Lung cancer has been the most common cause of cancer death over the last five decades in Australia with about 9,000 deaths estimated for 2019.  Tobacco exposure is the most significant risk factor for lung cancer, and it is well accepted that it is the most important contributor to lung cancer mortality.

The research

The team looked at lung cancer mortality rates in Australia, using past trends and historical and current data on tobacco consumption to project future lung cancer mortality rates.

The results show a decline in lung cancer rates by 2040, with male and female lung cancer rates declining from 27.2 to 15.1 per 100,000, and 15.8 to 11.8 per 100,000, respectively.  The research demonstrates that there is a lag of 26-29 years between smoking exposure and lung cancer mortality.  These projections reflect the effects of both past and present tobacco control interventions implemented in Australia up to 2016 including tobacco taxation, bans on tobacco advertising, smoke-free legislation, packaging restrictions, point-of-sale legislation, and anti-tobacco mass media campaigns.  The team observed that existing tobacco control measures may be starting to lose influence given that the decline in smoking rates slowed in 2016.

The study also found that despite the reduction in mortality rates, the number of lung cancer deaths will increase by 7.9% for males and 57.9% for females, due to population growth and ageing.