Predicting the future impact of lung cancer for men and women

Background

Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers diagnosed in Australia and the leading cause of cancer death. Australia has little current data on how many people are going to need treatment for lung cancer in the future. Calculating the five-year prevalence rate of lung cancer highlights the number of people who are undergoing initial treatment, receiving ongoing post-treatment follow-up care, or who are receiving end-of-life care. This information will help Australia to plan future health services for the likely number of people who will require these intensive levels of care.

The research

• The team analysed lung cancer cases diagnosed from 1983 – 2007 in NSW and found that for men, overall rates of lung cancer have declined over the past two decades. For women, unfortunately, there has been a rise in overall rates.
• Generally speaking, there is a 20–30 year lag between smoking and the onset of lung cancer. In Australia, smoking rates among men started to drop in the 1950s, which resulted in a decrease in lung cancer rates from the 1980s onwards.
• The reduction in smoking rates among women occurred much later and, therefore, it will be several years before the increase in lung cancer rates in women hits a peak and begins to decline. In fact, estimates based on the data predict that lung cancer prevalence for women in NSW will overtake that of men by 2017.